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Abstract: This conversation presents a formulation because that a computational version that integrates socio-cultural dynamics v kinetic tasks in a counterinsurgency environment. We focus on the regional population, the vital to resolving any insurgency. We describe its structure relationships, which us express together networks based upon social roles, values, and also power differentials, and also as emergent teams of different types. We define social dynamics which are conditioned through a member the the neighborhood population’s relative deprivation, stance, and risk attitude. The expression of the structure relationships v the social dynamics enables us to account because that ambiguities in the counterinsurgency setting such as the inadvertently guerrilla, and also groups which go dormant however remain in the that company memory. We introduce patron-client relationships to account because that the prominence of selecting an initial suggest of distribution of sources to a local population, and also emergence of alternative structures of legitimacy.


The U.S. Department of Defense has actually long supplied computational models come support army planning at all echelons – strategic, operational and also tactical. Since Cold battle planning scenarios presume the likelihood of assault on the U.S. To be one (a certainty), those scenarios were concentrated on either the promulgation the an assault or ~ above the solution to or the mitigation of one. Evaluation of the setting thus focused on kinetic facets of one engagement. Advancements in the analysis of society environments arisen separately indigenous such army planning. In fact, until recently, the difficulty focus because that the development of social simulations has actually been on private or polite sector problems such as the exercise of social funding through social networks, the modeling of crowds, and the modeling of the actions of that company or other organizations.

This paper presents an effort to combine analyses of social and also kinetic elements of a particular kind of armed forces engagement through a summary of our formulation for a counterinsurgency (COIN) model. Us will very first introduce summary the concepts we feel are many salient come COIN war in this modeling context. Us then outline our specific challenge problem, which focuses on the interaction of kinetic and also sociocultural environments. The discussion then move to the formulation itself. We explain our actors, and their relations through sets of structural relationships. This relationships space expressed as networks based on social roles, values, and power differentials, and also as emergent teams of different types. We additionally describe crucial social dynamics, conditioned by three major factors: just how much a certain member of the local population cares around his certain situation, which us parse as an expression that his feeling of relative deprivation; whom he blames for his situation, which we treat together his stance; and also what species of actions he is willing to take, which us express together his threat attitude. 

The actors, relationships, and also social dynamics we define are able to express an essential dimensions that a COIN environment. We deserve to see the introduction of, amongst others, the opportunistic insurgent (or counter-insurgent) that fights there is no commitment come an ideology system cause, identified recently together the ‘accidental guerrilla.’<1> This, in turn, leader to a ‘good male by day, poor guy by night’ phenomenon which us can additionally accommodate. The dynamics of our emergent groups permit us to handle an ideological or other group which goes dormant but remains in the corporate memory, probably to it is in revitalized in ~ some later time. Finally, we introduce a measurement we believe to it is in novel in COIN computational analyses: that of the patron-client network. This network maps the circulation of sources from teams exogenous come the local populace into that population, v the accompanying introduction of strength differentials and brand-new power structures. We show the innate (and perhaps necessary) tension between these vertical networks and the horizontal networks that arise native homophily (connections based on similarity or ‘like-ness’). Many importantly, patron-client networks have the right to take on facets of legitimacy similar to those of a more classic governmental regime, as patrons can generate solidarity based upon trust that provides historical depth to the relationship. This solidarity is based upon the same kind of trust and expectation the fairness that underlies legitimacy.

This work-related builds ~ above a body of previous work. This currently of research study started with collaborative research study undertaken through the first Marine Expeditionary force (I MEF) concentrating on stability and support work (SASO). The attempted to create a populace of civilians and link their “feelings” around the united state with tasks that affected their typical of living and also social ties.<2> This research ongoing with a MITRE internal research and advance project the attempted to implement ar Manual 3-24 together an entity-level discrete event simulation and link the dynamics expressed in ~ it to the use of improvised explosive tools (IEDs). This research study was ongoing in participation with share Improvised Explosive device Defeat company (JIEDDO) and likewise included the university of Vermont, the college of Miami, and also the Santa Fe Institute among others, and generated or contributed to a good breath the research.<3> The study team included, amongst others, one anthropologist, computer scientists, a computational society scientist, one agent-based modeler, and also a previous Marine with activity duty suffer in the center East. The simple focus the this latter research is to understand the “ground truth” situation as well as feasible through careful data evaluation so that us can produce the minimally enough model formulation to record the real people dynamics and create an work level sandbox for choice analysis. In what follows we explain the existing formulation because that this propose minimum specification<4>.

A emphasis on irregular warfare

The U.S. Authorized in COIN in the Middle eastern has adjusted the armed forces planning focus. The U.S. No much longer assumes a cohesive and well-understood motivation to strike on the component of relatively plainly identified adversaries. In fact, in numerous cases, that is the multiple and ever-changing motivations the a fragmented adversary to strike or get involved in part kinetic activity against the U.S. That room of main military interest. The U.S. Is interested in addressing the ambiguities of a COIN environment. To effectively operate in a COIN environment, the U.S. Must know our adversaries’ full spectrum of motivations and also intent.

COIN is a kind of irregular warfare (IW). IW is characterized by theory in the Irregular warfare Joint Operating ide (IW JOC) as “a violent struggle among state and also non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.”<5> COIN doctrine claims that “he major objective of any kind of COIN procedure is come foster advancement of efficient governance by a legitimate government.”<6> it is this struggle for legitimacy the is the specifying characteristic that IW – and therefore of COIN. Due to the fact that legitimacy relies upon a voluntary (i.e. Un-coerced or unrewarded) plot of entry to a regime<7> based upon the population’s acknowledgment of the regime’s moral authority, the emphasis of IW is no on regulate of region or legacy or the exercise of power, but for the ‘minds’ that the population. For this reason, the IW JOC variation 2.0 argues that a rich knowledge of the sociocultural setting is a an essential ingredient because that success in COIN and other IW activities: “In order to maximize the prospect of success, the joint pressure must know the populace and operating environment, consisting of the complex historical, political, socio-cultural, religious, economic and other causes of violent conflict.”<8>

Kinetics quiet play critical role in a counterinsurgency fight, of course. Of maybe greatest influence to U.S. Pressures in the current conflict in the Middle eastern has been the adversary’s usage of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The U.S.’s early stage responses to IEDs concentrated on finding and disabling the devices. Army planners and others soon realized that this was a game of catch-up which would certainly be complicated to win. While no abandoning efforts in this area, U.S. Attention has increased to include efforts to understand and disrupt the socio-technical processes that cause the manufacture and also emplacement of IEDs – i.e., to encompass upstream tasks in counter-IED analyses. Hence, an interest has developed in computational social modeling to address not just the kinetic but additionally the non-kinetic elements of the IED problem.<9>

The an obstacle Problem

The complicated COIN operation environment described by the IW JOC together referenced above is an huge system with many interdependencies, externalities, and also adaptive entities entailing both sociocultural and kinetic dynamics. Current analytical tools and also techniques fail to reflect the interdependence in between the kinetic and social dynamics<10>. Furthermore, interconnectivity and feedback amongst all the facets of socio-cultural equipment creates path dependent dynamics wherein the bespeak of events results future states of the system.<11> This gift the case, the many efficient way to recognize the dynamics the a device this complicated is come simulate it.<12> The most natural way to stand for systems that this nature in a simulation is as an agent-based simulation wherein all entities and also their interrelationships have the right to be explicitly represented.<13> We arisen such a simulation the the kinetics of Samarra, a city in Iraq. The version was reported to have actually retrodictively represented transforms in the impact of army strategy on the kinetic task in the area.<14> However, as American interest shifted come Afghanistan and we were asked to relocate the application target that the simulation and its underlying model, we discovered that back the design addressed particular aspects of kinetic activities really well, the sociocultural dynamics were incomplete and could no account for the location change. <15> We have thus developed and also will describe here a formulation of an agent-based device that addresses the intersection of the social and kinetic spaces in a share COIN scenario, shame by a focus on (counter-) IED activity. We phrase the challenge for this job as the development of a computational depiction of the interdependence between kinetic and also non-kinetic facets in the COIN environment. together such, our design will need to incorporate representations not only of adversarial and friendly forces, but additionally the civilian population, and also of the interactions among these three sets of actors. 

While the helpful relevance for this work certainly will initially be venues in Iraq and Afghanistan as these are of immediate worry for the U.S., our purpose is not to specifically replicate a particular environment or to have the ability to predict the actions of individuals in part particular space and time. This design is a strategy tool, not a tactical one. If we space successful, the version will help planners reason about the difficulty at large and create scenarios the will expand the possibility room with which they may engage. 

The design Formulation

This project initially advanced from research study by Epstein<16> as well Findley and Young<17>. We likewise drew top top a broad range of work-related in the area of complex conflict dynamics and the dynamics that rebellions and also political uprisings.<18>

The U.S. Defense modeling and also simulation community has a an excellent deal of field of expertise in kinetics. We drew heavily on this field of expertise for the parts of our model taking care of kinetics.<19> Although over there is within the defense ar only a nascent ability in computational modeling that the sociocultural domain,<20> there is also less activity in the integration of the sociocultural through the kinetic domain. Therefore, our conversation here focuses primarily top top the sociocultural elements of our model, v a description of the integration that this measurement with the kinetic. 

What adheres to is a summary of the structure of a model. The actors and also relationships that we explain here will form the basis of executable code that will permit decision machines to do certain species of analysis. 

An Overview

This section provides a high-level outline of the actors, your relationships and also associated society dynamics in ours model. Later in the discussion, us shall fancy on every the terms presented here.

In any type of COIN environment, there space three sets of actors. They are the established regime (which has the host nation and those sustaining the regime), insurgents (in a generic COIN sense, those fighting the established regime, which might include members the the local population as fine as international supporters), and also the local population. These 3 sets space collections of individually acting individuals. However, the created regime and the insurgents can likewise act as independent gibbs (hereafter referred to as collectivities), return the local population cannot. Us devote most of this record to one elaboration of the local population since COIN doctrine says that the is the facility of gravity in a counterinsurgency effort.<21>

The dynamics begin with a member of the local populace assessing how well turn off he<22> is in relationship to rather in his social space (i.e., his relative deprivation). He repurchase a belief around who is responsible for his regarded condition and also who caused world he cares around to involved harm. This is expressed together his stance. He has actually some inherent risk attitude which will constrain the types of activity he is ready to take to boost his condition.<23> such actions may incorporate both society actions (such as joining groups of assorted types) and also kinetic plot (such as making and detonating IEDs). His relative deprivation, merged with his stance, creates his grievance, i m sorry is a surrogate for who he blames because that his condition, while his risk mindset conditions what that is willing to do about it. We intricate upon all these state later.

Members of the local population create homophilitic connections, i.e. Connections based on like-ness, with various other members that the local population. (We specify homophily in lot greater information later.) every member considers his homophilitic connection with various other members of the population in terms of both status and values. Connections based upon homophily in status and values type horizontal networks which, in turn, lead to the emergence of dynamic, informal groups. 

Each emergent dynamic group establishes a persona which is a function of the relative deprivation, stance and also risk perspective of every the group’s members. The persona thus changes over time as group membership alters – and, in turn, conditions who would certainly be likely to join.

Certain emergent group species require seed resources in order to coalesce. These seed resources have the right to be one of two people endogenous to the neighborhood population, or provided to that is members native exogenous sources, i.e. The established regime and insurgents. Exogenous delivery of this resources could be provided to create patron-client networks.<24>

Patron-client networks room vertical networks which create a stress and anxiety with the horizontal networks created by connections based upon homophily. Furthermore, exchanges in between patrons and clients space asynchronous, therefore the relationships exist over time, unlike the horizontal connections produced through homophilitic relationships which space synchronous and also degrade quickly. 

The asynchronosity and also other facets of patron-client networks (which we delineate later) enable those networks to contend for details aspects the legitimacy v the more formal institutional structures of i beg your pardon regimes consist. Therefore, exogenous resource provision deserve to have an influence on who the local population supports and the channels through i beg your pardon that support is given, in ways that may be fairly unexpected (and probably unwelcome) to the donor.

As this various species of connection within the local population are formed and also dissolved, the insurgents and also the developed regime are imposing harm on the local populace in the form of arrests, kidnappings, killings and the like. Lock are likewise providing services to the same population in the kind of cash or various other benefits, as described by the U.S. In various discussions of stability operations.<25> (These kind the basis of the patron-client relationships explained above.) Additionally, insurgents and also the established regime engage in combat operations against each other. In our model, that combat consists of use of IEDs and also direct fire engagements.

For simplicity, births, immigration, emigration or various other endogenous mechanisms of change in the local populace are not included in our formulation. However, details members the the insurgent group and the created regime are replaced at one exogenously determined rate to enable for replacements because that combat losses. 

The adhering to sections set out one elaboration top top the terms and also dynamics introduced above.


We begin with the three sets of actors in the COIN environment. We define them together mutually exclude, high-level actors who exist in both social and geo-physical space. These actors (as presented earlier) are the developed regime, the insurgents, and the local population. The created regime’s goal is to reduce overall violence and also to minimize the number of members of the local populace who join insurgent-affiliated groups. The insurgents’ goal is come inflict together much damages as feasible on the established regime and also to boost the number of members that the local populace who sign up with insurgent-affiliated groups. The local population is the ‘prize’ in any type of insurgency environment and also is the target of action by the developed regime and also the insurgents.<26> The local populace presents a moving landscape of informal groups that form and reform based on social connections established by members as the latter shot to attain various goals. The developed regime and also insurgents contend for the allegiance the the regional population, allegiance express in our model by details actions take away by the local population. 

Insurgents and also the developed regime room two to adjust of actors, and are groups of a different kind than the neighborhood population. As proclaimed previously, insurgents and also the developed regime, as collectivities, have the right to act together independent actors, although (as us shall see later) their scope of action is reasonably limited. That is, the established regime qua established regime have the right to ‘do something’; the can role as a collectivity. The regional population, ~ above the various other hand, does not act as a collectivity, although groups composed the members v the exact same job, such as ‘army,’ ‘police,’ ‘farmer,’ and also ‘insurgent,’ may role as collectivities.

Individual insurgents and members the the developed regime each organize mutually exclusive work such as bomb maker or patrol. Shared exclusivity means that, so lengthy as a offered individual hold one job, he cannot hold another. Members that the regional population, ~ above the various other hand, deserve to hold numerous jobs and belong to several groups simultaneously, i beg your pardon may allow us come represent, because that example, the ‘good male by day, bad guy by night’ phenomenon. We thus lay the structure for a rich social atmosphere for the local population, the target that IW/COIN campaigns, and also we describe the insurgents and the created regime in reasonably simple sensible terms.

Members that the local population can simultaneously run in approximately four various social domains: employment, religious, civic, and also political. We believe these 4 domains administer a sufficiently varied social environment for this model. The religious, civil and political domains correspond come sets that emergent groups (discussed later) which are defined by purpose. The employed staff domain is additional subdivided into varied job functions (hereafter, referred to for simplicity together ‘jobs’) ranging from ‘merchant’ to ‘insurgent’. Each of these functions, in turn, has particular actions linked with it. Each job have the right to act as a collectivity (that is, together a society actor in its own right), yet the people within the collectivity can likewise take actions independently of each other and of the collectivity. Of specific interest to us is the insurgent job, as one of the actions the a member that the local population can take in this job is to come to be an IED emplacer and also support those respond to to the established regime. Actions for the other jobs are cure abstractly as ‘provide costs/benefits.’ Finally, teams will emerge and also recede together a consequence of interactions among members that the neighborhood population. 

These actors are illustrated in number 1 and also described in more detail below.


Figure 1: Actors


Members of the insurgent group can have actually one of three various jobs. First, they have the right to be IED emplacers, in which situation their possible actions space to find a cache, obtain an IED, emplace one IED, arm an IED, trigger an IED, and perform fight damage assessment (BDA). Secondly, they can be bomb-makers, in which instance their feasible actions room to locate a cache, do an IED and to relocate come a brand-new cache if necessary. And also finally, over there is an ‘advocate’ job. Advocates carry out benefits to other actors, and also impose costs on actors in regards to killing, injuring, or kidnapping them. (Note the actors may make ‘mistakes’ and impose expenses on members that their very own side or give benefits come those protest to them.) We have left benefits abstract in the model, yet examples of benefits can be food and medical treatment for members the the neighborhood population. We do not specify expense or benefit species because the form is not appropriate to design dynamics. Together a collectivity, insurgents have the right to also provide resources come other teams or individuals. Therefore, native the view of the regional population, insurgents might be perceived positively, negatively, or both.

If IED emplacers and also bomb-makers are discovered by the established regime, the developed regime will attempt to engage. If insurgents are removed from the battlefield together a an outcome of kinetic engagement through the created regime, they will certainly be replaced at an exogenously established rate. 

The created regime

As discussed earlier, the established regime have the right to act together a collectivity and also have both a optimistic and an unfavorable aspect as regarded by every individual member of the neighborhood population. Comparable to the insurgents, the developed regime as a team can carry out resources to groups or to individual members that the regional population. Members that the developed regime deserve to have one of two jobs: (1) patrol and also (2) advocate. The patrol job consists of not simply patrolling but additionally executing a convoy mission by relocating in concert with other patrols, executing a named operations mission which entails moving to and also destroying a cache, or performing BDA after ~ being assaulted with one IED. An created regime support will administer benefits to and also impose prices upon individual members that the neighborhood population. As with the insurgents, expenses may encompass arrest, injury or death, and also benefits space unspecified. Additionally, if actors in a patrol job are killed by insurgents, castle are changed at one exogenously established rate, since, just like the insurgents, us assume that the developed regime would sustain its pressure levels through reinforcements.

Local population

The local population is the most facility set of gibbs in our model, although that does no act as a collectivity per se. (The local population qua local populace cannot ‘do’ anything.) This section specifies several terms which help us delineate the neighborhood population. These terms individuate members the the local population, and also establish principles for the dynamics through which they will certainly interact. 

We will very first discuss exactly how members that the local populace define your social identity (defined later on in this section) with combinations of attributes which are assigned assorted weights. Us then will explain the social dynamic that homophily. Homophily explains how individuals form social relations by assessing their similarity (likeness) follow to assorted attributes. Once these connections are established, people then to compare themselves to those v whom castle are connected to identify their relative deprivation. They additionally develop an assignment of blame for their relative deprivation, an assignment we call a stance. Their loved one deprivation an unified with your stance (how badly off they think they are loved one to others and also who they think is come blame because that that) returns their grievance. Members that the local populace are further individuated by your risk attitude. (We will define risk attitude later in this section.) an individual’s grievance merged with his risk attitude will tell united state what species of activities he would certainly be ready to engage in – whether he would certainly be pro- or anti-established regime, for example, and also if he would certainly be likely to connect in kinetic activities (e.g. Detonating an IED) or much less violent (and because of this presumably less risky) activities, such as giving information.

Defining society identity

Recall the in our model, the local population cannot act as a collectivity, unequal the insurgents and the developed regime. Also, unlike members that the insurgents and also the created regime which, except with respect to their jobs, stand for homogeneous groups, each local populace member has attributes. The worths assigned to those characteristics contribute come the individuation the the member’s actions. Each member is additionally assigned a skill or capability. Planting ~ above a farm, do a bomb, or to buy food are instances of skills. We will certainly discuss qualities here, and return to skills in a later section on emergent groups. 

We have determined eight attributes linked with local populace members: ethnicity, defect affiliation, religion, nationality, gender, marital status, period cohort, and also wealth. We believe these attributes administer us the versatility to stand for a wealthy social environment throughout time and also space. Worths for these eight attributes are mentioned for each member of the regional population. Values and also weights for each attribute space determined based on the area of interest. (For example, in one area in Afghanistan, the ‘ethnicity’ attribute may have six or seven various values and also be weighted less than the tribe attribute in various other areas.) Permitting various combinations of weight attributes enables for creation of a culturally appropriate and relevant population. Setup specific worths for attributes and also weightings median that ours culture-general ideas are instantiated as a model certain to a society located in time and also space.<27>

Exercising Homophily

Within any type of social landscape, world tend to attach with others who are prefer them, although ‘like’ can be characterized in a range of time-, space- and also culturally-dependent ways. Analytically, this ‘likeness’ construct is termed homophily. Local populace members use their characteristics to recognize their degree of homophily. We use a more nuanced definition of homophily 보다 is usually uncovered in the computational social modeling literature,<28> together we go back to the seminal an interpretation of homophily.<29>

Lazarsfeld and also Merton identified two different species of homophily. Status homophily refers to “observed tendencies for similarity between the group-affiliation of friend or in between their positions within a group”<30> or similarity in structure position.<31> We usage wealth, marital status, age cohort and gender qualities as markers of an actor’s society structural position. Individuals with who one has high condition homophily may become part of one’s condition network. Value homophily describes “observed tendencies in the direction of correspondence in the worths ”<32> or similarity in values. We usage the ethnicity, defect affiliation, religion and nationality attributes as indications of swarm of values. People with whom one has actually high worth homophily may become component of one’s worth network. Therefore, ours members of the local populace have four status-defining and also four value-defining attributes, whereby each attribute has some collection of in your ar determined definitions from i beg your pardon assignments come actors are made. Members the the local population can be like one one more in the they occupy comparable positions in the society structure, or they deserve to be choose one an additional because the a post in values. This difference is critical because the social aftermath of status homophily differ considerably from those of worth homophily.

The social aftermath of status and also value homophily are described by referral to 2 theoretical traditions. Status homophily draws on identity theory, while worth homophily pulls from social identity theory. 

Identity theory<33> says that one individual specifies his ‘self’ in state of just how well the fulfills expectations of the miscellaneous social functions from which he might choose.<34> A social function is a set of expectation prescribing behavior that is considered ideal by others. This technique thus posits a meaning of me in regards to others’ (or society’s) behavioral expectations. The complete collection of these expectations in a offered time and place is a summary of social structure. 

Social identification theory, top top the various other hand, focuses on the method in which society categories provide definitions the self and so affect values and also attitudes.<35> It focuses on intergroup interaction, arguing that people act as, and are viewed as, to represent of a details group rather than as distinctive selves.<36>

Social identification theory additionally addresses the procedure of identification through groups, including the formation of stereotypes, the hopeful valuation that in-group behavior and also the an adverse valuation that out-group behavior. Social identification theory thus has a normative dimension. Identification theory, however, is structural and descriptive. It focuses on descriptions of the functions themselves and also their manifestation v behavior and does not assign positive or negative value to those roles. For this reason, the kind of self-identification defined by social identification theory (self-identification as a member of a group) is much more likely to bring about inter-group dispute than is the kind of identification emerged through function behaviors. In social identity theory, in-group and also out-group behaviors end up being prototyped, stereotyped, and also valued. In identity theory, in contrast, the major dissonance is between individuals who perform not agree on duty expectations. This might lead come intra-group dispute as us see v (for example) the expression of different expectations because that female behavior in some Muslim cultures. This differentiation that status and value homophily allows us to represent an ext accurately the ways in i m sorry members that the local population interact, and the influence of those interaction on individuals’ emotion of relative deprivation (derived native status-homophilitic interactions) or view (acquired through value-homophilitic interactions), as described in much more detail below.

Relative deprivation

An separation, personal, instance will communicate with those through whom he has actually high status homophily (i.e., v those in his status network). V this engagement, he gains information around his own social condition or quality of life relative to those in his condition network. This enables him to identify what is called his relative deprivation.<37> Thus, an separation, personal, instance compares himself to others, not to an objective standard, in bespeak to determine his satisfaction. Initiatives by individuals or groups to correct feelings of loved one deprivation that emerge from the comparison of oneself to rather are most likely to bring about social strife or to wake up the rise of huge social movements.<38>,<39>,<40> once these consciousness of loved one deprivation are merged with mindsets of ‘blame’ for that relative deprivation (which we resolve in the following section top top stance), the possibility of social unrest increases.


A stance, together we use it in our model, is an expression through an separation, personal, instance of even if it is or not he holds some specific group responsible for his condition (be it great or bad). View is differentiated from loved one deprivation; the last is one individual’s assessment of his condition. A member that the local population will consider what the knows about the imposition that costs and benefits from assorted actors on his value network once determining his stance. His stance will vary over time based on the stances of those with whom the engages and also of the groups to which he belongs. (We will discuss how groups build stances later.) because stances represent the assignment the a positive or negative value to the team perceived to it is in responsible for his condition, they room an expression that social identity as distinct from identification (recall the earlier conversation on social identity theory and also identity theory), and also thus space a function of member in a value network.


The mix of one actor’s loved one deprivation and his stance will certainly yield his grievance level. An actor’s grievance is a surrogate for exactly how much that cares around his situation (his relative deprivation) merged with one assignment of duty identifying who he thinks is responsible for his case (his stance). Figure 2illustrates this. This formulation enables us to prevent the now-discounted theory that deprivation alone (whether that be pure or relative) leads to violent activity.<41>



Figure 2: theoretical model for determining grievance

Risk attitude

An separation, personal, instance actor’s level of grievance will identify how difficult he is willing to occupational to influence his situation. The types of activity in which the is willing to interact will be identified by his risk attitude.<42> Risk attitude describes decision making over quantifiable alternatives under problems of uncertainty. The classic approach to risk attitude evaluates the habits of an individual when challenged with choices between outcomes quantified in probability terms.<43>

Canonical intended utility theory<44> assumes that all people will usage the very same formula to calculation the riskiness that a provided decision, and also that a offered individual’s risk attitude is no decision-dependent.<45> Therefore, because that a provided individual, risk perspective will remain continuous from one decision to the next. <46> there are, however, distinctions in risk mindset between one individual and another, v the circulation favoring the risk-avoidant end of one objectively identified scale. Proof from the literature shows that most individuals display a concave threat function,<47> that is, they space risk-seeking over little stakes and also risk-avoiding over large stakes.<48> proof from neuroeconomics research study is currently showing that there additionally is a far-reaching affective ingredient to what had historically been taken into consideration a purely cognitive process. <49>

Our actors challenge decisions of a relatively limited form and their time frame and also social paper definition are extremely constrained. Therefore, we feel comfortable in discounting the constructivist method for this application, in which different responses to the exact same decision room a function of factors far more complicated than simply risk attitude.<50> We thus have randomly assigned every member of the local population a risk attitude which is unchanging over time, accountancy for the affective component by the introduction of part randomness. We likewise skew the assignment curve to stand for a population concavely it was crooked in the direction of hazard aversion.

The local populace summarized

During his interaction with various other actors in his geographic and also social space, a member the the local population acquires information about his environment. He supplies this information to recognize his problem relative to others. This ‘condition’ has two dimensions. One is his basic welfare, which us characterize together ‘relative deprivation’ and also which is actually figured out relatively, not absolutely. As described earlier, this is identified based top top a comparison of himself v others in his standing network, whereby his condition network is defined by condition homophily. The other dimension of his problem is his perspective towards miscellaneous collectivities (e.g. Insurgents or the developed regime). We contact this his stance, taken to it is in his mindset towards those whom he think ‘are responsible’ for his family member deprivation. As this stance mirrors values and also attitudes, that is conditioned by members the his value network, characterized by value homophily. 

The mix of the actor’s viewed relative deprivation and also his stance generate his grievance toward various collective actors, a surrogate for the level of activity in which that is willing to engage. His risk mindset tells us in what species of activity he is willing to engage. One individual with high grievance and high risk aversion may be ready to work an extremely hard to assistance the established regime (if he has actually a pro-established regime or anti-insurgent stance), yet may no be willing to carry out it in methods that put himself in far-ranging harm’s way. For example, he might be ready to carry out information secretly but not to become a policeman. Figure 3 summarizes this progression to activity on the component of an individual member of the local population.



Figure 3: progression to action- regional population

Consequences of social dynamics: emergent groups

A an important outcome the interactions among the members that the local population is the figure of emergent groups. This collectivities may type and dissolve really quickly, creating a changing yet far-ranging social landscape. Our discussion of emergent teams will show, amongst other things, just how social memory can be important, how teams which kind around crucial individuals deserve to or cannot affect the flow of resources and also influence with a population, and also what the consequent affect is ~ above grievances.

Emergent teams are collection of members of the regional population. Every collection has a purpose and performs tasks that help it meet that purpose. Because that example, an emergent team may have actually as its objective to administer security for a neighborhood. Associated tasks might be gaining weapons, shooting in ~ intruders, patrolling, and the like. Each task requires a certain collection of skills which are noted to the collection by the members. Recall the each populace member has actually a set of skills. Skills exist within the group in a Hayekian sense<51>: if one member of one emergent group has a important skill, climate the group has that crucial skill. 

We base our build of emergent teams on Robert Axtell’s model of firms,<52> with some alteration of his early stage assumptions. Prefer Axtell, we assume an emergent team (in Axtell’s terms, a firm) is a collection of people who are urged (working) to adjust the status quo. We think this is as applicable come the socio-political domain together it is to the economic domain because, for example, one way of characterizing insurgent groups is as firms who product is violence.<53>

We represent three distinct emergent group types that members the the local population may pick to join. Each kind provides advantage or welfare in different way to that is members. The teams are together follows: 1) decreasing return to range groups whereby the enhancement of an separation, personal, instance decreases the advantage or welfare created per unit of labor (for example, common pool resources like water or grazing land may come to be stretched much more thinly through the addition of brand-new group members); 2) constant return to scale groups, whereby the addition of one individual has actually no influence on the quantity of benefit or welfare created per unit of labor (as may be the case with religious, social or ideological groups); and 3) increasing return to scale groups where the enhancement of an individual rises the amount of benefit or welfare produced per unit labor (think the a traditional western economic group or firm, where including an individual v some distinctive skill can considerably enhance others’ productivity).<54>

Members that the local populace join emergent groups and devote their limited time to engaging in the tasks of the emergent teams of i m sorry they room a part in order to boost welfare. The quantity of welfare a group member derives native his actions together a member of the emergent group is a function of 2 things: the all at once size the the group and also how much the member’s endogenous skill collection is valued through the group. Members v high value skills (i.e. Skills that are scarce however essential) receive more welfare than members v low value skills.<55> consistent with Axtell, new increasing returns emergent groups can be began by anyone; however, in our construct these individuals must have collected welfare or be sponsor to carry out so. Resources to start a brand-new increasing returns group may additionally come from a source exogenous to the neighborhood population, i.e. The created regime or the insurgents. 

Members that the local populace learn around emergent teams by interacting with members that their status networks. A member that the local population will check the emergent team memberships of the members the his status network. He climate checks the emergent group’s hazard attitude and stance (the group’s danger attitude and stance space a duty of those of all of its members) and, if it is compatible v his own, he might join. He also will assess the riskiness of exercising his specific skill in the execution of the group’s activities based on its background over some time period. We approximate his incomplete information and possibly suboptimal decision by bestowing bounded rationality top top the neighborhood population.<56>

A new emergent group reflects the establishing member’s stance and his threat attitude, together he is the just member. As new members join, their stance and risk perspective modify the stance and also risk attitude of the team (its persona). As a result, with time the older members may leave the team if the view and/or risk mindset of the team moves too much away from their own. Furthermore, together the risk mindset changes, the types of activities in i m sorry the team will engage also will change (e.g. A group may move much more towards violent tasks as its danger aversion decreases). The is also possible that one actor will certainly re-join one emergent team he formerly left together it moves earlier towards his very own risk attitude and also stance. The is motion in the limitless social dance.

Emergent teams will go ‘dormant’ if they have actually no members. Dormant teams still exist in the social memory, holding the threat attitude and stance they had at the time they walk dormant. Such teams can be restored if actors’ stance and risk perspective match with the dormant emergent group’s ‘remembered’ attitudes. This feature permits us come account because that the strength of history/myth. 

New enhancing returns to scale teams require an investment which might or might not come from the founding member (i.e. It might come native an exogenous source such as the created regime or the insurgents). If the early stage investment originates from the established regime or the insurgents, the establishing member that the team is the initial recipient of those resources. That then offers those sources to start an enhancing returns emergent group or a patron-client network, which we explain in the next section. 

The persona of a brand-new increasing returns team (unlike decreasing or consistent returns groups) is a function of the risk attitude and also stance that both the resource of resources (which may be exogenous) and also the new increasing return group establishing member. If the founding member is likewise the resource provider, his hazard attitude and stance alone create the group’s persona. Together the group gets larger and also as time progresses from when the team was founded, the founder’s influence will wane. Eventually, the personality of the emergent group may diverge sufficiently from that of the founder that the team severs the tie with the founder.

We have portrayed the relationships and dependencies that produce emergent groups in number 4.


Figure 4: authorized a group

Patron-client relationships

The emergent groups explained in the previous ar are groups based upon horizontal relationships – they room peer-to-peer groups, where a member of the local population makes a decision whether or no to join based on interactions with his peers through exploitation that homophilitic connections. However, there space other varieties of relationship based upon differences in strength (asymmetries) rather than on similarities of characteristics in a team of equals. Of attention to us below is the patron-client relationship.

The inclusion of emergent team dynamics allows us to attend to the special case where resources are provided by a source exogenous to the local population. A patron, by definition, gives a bridging duty for his client to sources to which the customer otherwise would certainly not have actually access. We will specify this in greater information later – however we note below that this source could be (but is not necessarily) ‘international’ in nature. This allows us to discover the influence of picking a particular recipient of resources detailed by (e.g.) the established regime come the neighborhood population. We note particularly that that success or failure of an increasing returns team will be very dependent on the characteristics of the individual to whom the sources are originally given, as the group’s immediate and also distant future are conditioned through the founding member’s horizontal (homophilitic) relationships. This suggests that the an option of the receiver of these sources in the COIN atmosphere may certainly be important,<57> together the recipient might start raising returns team that is embedded in the existing society structure, or rather start a patron-client network that could potentially contend with the existing strength structure.

Patron-client relationships tend to emerge in social settings in which no all participants have actually equal accessibility to essential social resources. These societies are often identified by significant power differentials, in exercise usually a solid center and a weak periphery.<58> Patrons frequently perform a bridging function between powerful and outwardly focused organizations (e.g., a centralized government) and also local, less an effective individuals often uncovered at the periphery of states. 

Patron-client relationships, in our intended sense, space typified through the complying with characteristics.<59>,<60>,<61>,<62> Patron-client ties are relationships in between inherently unequal people (not groups) . One member of the dyad is always more powerful 보다 the other. These relationships are mechanisms to facilitate exchange, therefore they depend upon reciprocity. The said, the nature that the thing (whether it it is in something concrete or more abstract choose money or favors) that flows increase the dyad is usually different in kind from the which flows down. Although your locally identified value is approximately equal,<63> the exchange is asynchronous. The relationships room extra-legal if no illegal. If extra-legal, they are generally ignored rather than negatively sanctioned by the formal legitimate system. Patron-client relationships often emerge in time of society disturbance, back this is no the only time we see them.<64> Patron-client relationships room usually entered into voluntarily, although over there is often far-reaching social pressure for people to go into into them, and also there are strong social sanctions for violating the local norms regarding entering, engaging in, and exiting such relationships. 

The asynchronous nature that the exchanges is an essential characteristic of the relationship. That is possible that generations will pass prior to the exchange is completed.<65> This asynchronicity creates solidarity end time between the receiver and also the giver, a solidarity based upon trust. Marcel Mauss called this a form of generalised exchange.<66>,<67> He defined it in state of presents (e.g., I provide you a birthday gift and also I have developed an responsibility on your component to reciprocate at part time in the future), yet generalized exchange describes many other types of exchange such together returning favors.<68> In addition to solidarity, the notion of asynchronicity provides an historical depth the is doing not have in a transaction-based system. 

The primary solid connection in a patronage partnership is a upright one, so patronage networks have the potential come challenge, undermine or enhance the strength of horizontal or peer-to-peer relationships.<69> our emergent raising returns teams lie at the nexus of vertically characterized patronage networks and also horizontally defined groups, such as status and value networks. Mean the insurgents or the created regime offer resources to an individual. The resource recipient have the right to then create a patronage network by disbursing the resources, serving a bridging duty between the larger people of the insurgents and the developed regime and the more circumscribed civilization of the regional population. However, once those resources ‘hit the streets,’ horizontal ties may attract peers the the customer into the group. This would then create an emergent group, diluting the affect of the patron and his sponsors. Consisting of patron-client relationships in our model for this reason introduces a vital tension between the vertical ties produced by strength differentials and also the horizontal ties stimulated by homophily. This tension illuminates the aftermath of a vital COIN activity – the disbursement of resources to a regional population. 

Power and legitimacy

The patron-client connection with its solid social penalty in instances of violation introduces notions that power and also legitimacy. The is precious taking part time to discover this ide as legitimacy because that a regime<70> is the finish game that IW/COIN. Furthermore, power (which deserve to be worked out through the disbursement the benefits and coercion) is often confused with legitimacy, return they room qualitatively different concepts.<71>

Power is a mechanism to form the actions of others. That is exercised either by threatening or making use of coercion come deter or adjust undesired habits or by promise rewards to encourage desired behavior (i.e. To engender satisfaction).<72> This is an critical or conditional way of social control (‘if I carry out this, then you will carry out that’)<73> and is a duty of the quantity of coercion exerted and the benefits provided. 

Power, which outcomes from the combined exercise that coercion and also reward, generates compliance with particular authorities (people) or particular directives authorize by the regime.<74> It for this reason is particularistic as it is support for a specific activity or a specific person, no for an school or a system of federal government (i.e. Regime). 

Instrumental strength of the type we just described is a really expensive way of society control since of the element of coercion or benefits provision.<75> Coercion and the delivery of benefits are socially expensive together they require the invest in individuals who have the right to continuously monitor behavior and apply either confident or an unfavorable pressure come induce compliance anytime necessary. Afford legitimacy is another way in which regimes have the right to exercise society control, in this situation without the hazard of coercion or the promise the rewards.<76>

Legitimacy is often defined as a role of procedures that are perceived to it is in fair, whereby “fair” is identified by the target population.<77> There space three important elements to this definition. First, the is crucial to acknowledge that legitimacy is the function of a populace’s perception of a regime, not of attributes of the regime itself. Second, the entity which has actually legitimacy is a procedure or collection of procedures, regularly embodied in institutions which themselves may be gathered into regimes. And also third, the focus is on process credibility or fairness. 

Thus the finish game of a COIN or insurgency operation is the establishment of the legitimacy the the routine that every participant supports. Facility of legitimacy requires the shaping the the consciousness of the population. Transforming the regime might be crucial to create legitimacy but will not necessarily it is in sufficient. Legitimacy cannot be legislated or decreed and may arise in unplanned ways. Because that example, earlier we introduced an informal power structure constructed approximately the patron-client relationship. We emphasized that this partnership is normally extra-legal if not illegal, yet carries solid social penalty in instances of violation. We also pointed out that the asynchronicity imbues the partnership with historic depth that allows for the evaluate of the procedure over time. In this way, a patron-client network (patrons through their numerous clients) can be perceived to have ‘legitimacy’ in many of the same means as a governmental structure. Together such, it need to be explicitly taken into consideration in the COIN environment.

Kinetic activity

In our earlier summary of the insurgents and also the developed regime, we stated that they could both impose costs and administer benefits. By presenting notions of cost and benefits, we presented a concept of power. Recall additionally that IW (and COIN as a particular kind of IW) is “a violent struggle for legitimacy and also influence end the relevant population”<78> (emphasis added). A model of the COIN environment is thus incomplete without consideration of the exercise of power v violence.

Our major actors in the kinetic domain space the insurgents and the developed regime. The local population engages as among the targets of the kinetic actions, as a participant through the insurgent project or work with the established regime, and also as a provider of information to the insurgents and/or the created regime (see number 1). Thus, although the local population is the ‘prize’ that a COIN operation, it also can be an active participant supporting either player in the COIN struggle or can become a target or collateral damage.

The violent activities we represent center about the employed of IEDs and also direct fire weapons. We understood the IED process to indicate bomb-makers and emplacers. Members the the local populace who sign up with the job team ‘insurgents’ additionally can choose to come to be emplacers if your level of danger aversion is short enough. If their threat aversion is high however their anti-established routine stance is strong, members of the local population can connect in details gathering activities for the insurgents rather of ending up being emplacers. 

The IEDs are emplaced along routes traveled by the developed regime. Members of the created regime patrol, or travel in convoys, both of i beg your pardon are delicate to IEDs. They additionally perform operations come find and also defuse IEDs. 

The interaction in between members of the established regime and insurgents will affect the variety of IEDs that are actually emplaced and so detonated. Members that the local populace can affect the number of IEDs emplaced by giving information come insurgents or to the created regime. Info provision actions will be taken by people who room (for example) donate of the created regime however with a risk aversion high sufficient to preclude them native taking tasks such as army, police, or government.

If an IED explodes, anyone (local populace included) within the blast radius is a potential victim. Both the insurgents and the created regime collection information around each IED event in a ‘corporate’ memory; this permits the insurgents to adapt their tasks to the regime, and also vice versa.<79>

Civilian deaths and also injuries indigenous IEDs and also other expenses are known as an unfavorable actions by the victim’s value network, resulting in its members to adjust their view negatively towards the perpetrator. A adjust towards a an ext negative stance likewise will change grievance levels and also therefore the plot actors are willing come take. (Note the the individual’s risk perspective does not change.) vice versa, if a group bestows services on another group or on one individual, the group’s or individual’s stance will adjust positively. Figure 5 illustrates the readjust in an individual’s propensity for violent action.

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Figure 5: readjust in propensity for violent action


This formulation is crucial first step in the advancement of a theoretically base simulation that the COIN environment. The socially rich environment we have articulated here allows us come account for assorted phenomena that have contributed to the ‘messiness’ and an obstacle of prosecuting rarely often, rarely wars, consisting of the link in between social interaction and kinetic behavior. It allows us, because that example, to account for the ‘accidental guerrilla’<80> – the separation, personal, instance who has actually no specific ideological stance however who reaction to an extremely locally enforced costs and also who looks towards some insurgent team to help resolve his relative deprivation (i.e., administer financial incentive, other financial opportunity, or various other benefit). While financial deprivation is arguably no the main motive for every insurgents, we must enable this together a possibility. We also account because that the ‘good guy by day, bad guy through night’ phenomenon that regularly characterizes the COIN environment. A member that the local population may belong to several emergent groups as each gives him v a various or added benefit. Because he can belong to number of emergent teams simultaneously, he have the right to hold what might show up to be contradictory ideas simultaneously (e.g. Pro-established regime, pro-insurgents). Together a result, we room able to differentiate (to some first order) amongst behaviors that might look the same but be propelled by different motivations. Ours inclusion that the patron-client dynamic together with the dynamics of emergent teams shows just how an initial distribution of sources can influence their ultimate disposition, and stimulate the introduction of legitimate social structures. Finally, the interdependence in between the kinetic and socio-cultural dimensions, which we have depicted with ours preliminary results, present that the is feasible to stand for these dynamics v potentially useful results because that planners and decision-makers.

We are optimistic that this method to presenting and manipulating the intersection in between the kinetic and socio-cultural domain names will administer strategic-level decision makers and planners with a better understanding of exactly how to accomplish strategic goals such as the advance of legitimacy. We likewise believe that may help on the to work level, illuminating such phenomena together counter-government habits driven both through ideology also as more instrumental factors such as local power struggles or financial needs. Ultimately, we are trying out the interdependent relationship in between social and also kinetic to work in the COIN environment. We have conceptualized that relationship as a proxy, to part degree, for the relationship in between legitimacy and also power, recognizing legitimacy together the wanted end state that a COIN operation.